Six AI agents simulate every angle of your acquisition — target, competitors, customers, regulators, market, and supply chain — and stress-test 50+ scenarios in hours, not months. McKinsey-grade commercial due diligence (CDD) at a fraction of the cost.
BUY at 78% confidence. $151M–$180M entry. 62% probability of 3x+ return. That's what our simulation delivered on a representative healthcare SaaS deal — in under 48 hours.
Your team screens 200 deals a year. You can deep-dive on maybe 15. The rest get a quick model and a gut check. That's not diligence — that's triage.
PE firms evaluate 200+ deals/year but deep-diligence fewer than 15.
That's a 92% analysis gap.
Our simulation deploys a team of six specialized agents — each representing a distinct economic actor in the deal — that analyze the acquisition from their perspective, enforce second-order interaction effects, and produce a probability-weighted assessment with full provenance.
Financial health scoring, valuation range, key risk identification
Market concentration, moat durability, competitive positioning
Segment analysis, net revenue retention, churn risk, lifetime value
Antitrust scoring, compliance gaps, deal-killer flags
Cycle position, M&A market heat, comparable transaction multiples
Concentration risk, pricing power, single-source vulnerabilities
When the Target identifies thin margins, the Competitor adjusts moat durability downward. The Customer increases churn risk. The Supplier flags elevated pricing power. Each agent reads upstream analysis before forming its view. Risks compound — just like they do in reality.
Monte Carlo simulation with statistically rigorous sampling across revenue growth, margin compression, churn, and multiple expansion. You get P10 through P90 probability distributions — not a base case and two handwaves.
Initial analysis in 2–4 hours. Full engagement in 48 hours. You can diligence more deals, deeper, faster.
Every conclusion traces to a source document and page number. Every agent decision is logged. Every scenario path is reproducible. This isn't a black box — it's the most auditable diligence process you've ever seen.
30-minute scoping call. Mutual NDA. Share your deal materials through secure intake.
Six agents analyze every angle. Monte Carlo runs 50–500 scenario paths. Human review gates at critical junctures.
30+ page IC-ready report in 48 hours. PDF, JSON, or executive summary — your choice.
Case Study
A real deal. A real simulation. Real numbers.
MedFlow Analytics: $72M ARR healthcare SaaS platform. 42% YoY growth. 118% net revenue retention. 180+ hospital systems. On paper, a dream target.
Verdict
BUY at 78% confidence
Recommended Entry
$151M – $180M
10.5x – 14.5x EV/EBITDA
| Scenario | Exit EV | MOIC | IRR | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P5 Stress | $198M | 1.1x | ~2% | EHR encroachment + churn + margin miss |
| P10 | $289M | 1.6x | ~10% | Growth slows to 15%, margin flat |
| P25 | $456M | 2.5x | ~20% | Moderate growth, limited margin expansion |
| P50 Median | $698M | 3.9x | ~31% | Base: 28% growth, 26% margin, 12.5x exit |
| P75 | $943M | 5.2x | ~39% | Strong growth + margin expansion + tuck-ins |
| P90 | $1,247M | 6.9x | ~47% | Accelerated growth, 30%+ margins |
| P95 Bull | $1,518M | 8.4x | ~53% | Market leadership + roll-up + IPO exit |
62%
Probability of 3x+ MOIC
4.2%
Probability of capital loss
4.1x
Mean MOIC
Three deal-killer scenarios the simulation surfaced:
If Epic restricts API access and launches bundled analytics at 50% lower cost, MedFlow's moat erodes. MOIC drops to 0.4–0.6x.
Professional services stuck at 18% of revenue signals a product gap. EBITDA stalls at 21–22% vs. 25%+ plan. Median MOIC: 2.4x.
Health Catalyst acquires NLP competitor + Innovaccer undercuts on price + tuck-in targets get snapped up. At $180M entry: MOIC 1.0–1.5x. At $209M: value destruction.
The pricing insight alone is worth the engagement fee. At $151M, median MOIC improves to 4.6x. At $209M, it drops to 3.3x. We didn't just say "buy" — we showed exactly where the margin of safety lives.
Delivered as a 32-page IC-ready report with Monte Carlo distributions, sensitivity tornado plots, customer segmentation by risk, regulatory timeline, and a value creation roadmap.
| McKinsey / BCG | Boutique CDD | In-House | Base Case DD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost / Deal | $500K–1.25M | $150K–400K | $50K–100K | $15K–30K |
| Timeline | 6–8 weeks | 4–6 weeks | 3–4 weeks | 48 hours |
| Scenarios | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 50–500 |
| 2nd-Order Effects | Manual | Rarely | Almost never | Enforced |
| Auditability | PDF only | PDF only | Spreadsheet | Full provenance |
| Scalability | 2–3 / quarter | 3–5 / quarter | 12–15 / year | Unlimited |
90%
cheaper than McKinsey
80%
faster than boutique firms
10x
more scenarios than anyone
We don't replace your judgment. We replace the 80% of analytical grunt work that prevents your team from exercising judgment on more deals.
Traditional CDD costs $150K–$1.25M per engagement. One prevented bad deal pays for a decade of simulations.
Single Deal
$15K–$30K
Full simulation, IC-ready report, 48-hour turnaround.
Best for: Testing us on your next live deal.
Multi-Deal
$30K–$75K
3–5 simulations with cross-deal pattern analysis.
Best for: Active deal season or fund deployment phase.
Annual Retainer
$5K–$10K/mo
Up to 5 deals/month, ongoing portfolio monitoring, priority turnaround.
Best for: Firms that want simulation baked into their process.
One prevented bad deal pays for a decade of simulations. If a $30K engagement stops a $50M mistake, that's 1,000x ROI. If it saves you $200K in CDD fees on a deal you would have passed on anyway, it's paid for itself seven times over.
Our MedFlow simulation produced a BUY at 78% confidence with three specific deal-killer scenarios — including a competitive pincer that traditional CDD almost never models. Every finding traces to source data. Every agent publishes its confidence level. No simulation predicts the future. Ours stress-tests more futures than any human team can model manually.
Whatever you'd give your CDD provider: CIM, financial model, management presentation, market studies. PDF, Excel, Word, CSV. We produce useful analysis from a CIM alone — the more data, the richer the simulation.
A spreadsheet models scenarios you think to test. We model scenarios you didn't think to test. Six agents surface interaction effects — competitive response triggering customer churn triggering EBITDA collapse — that spreadsheets structurally cannot capture. Plus 50–500 Monte Carlo paths instead of your three tabs.
Engagement isolation is architectural, not policy. Every database query filters by engagement ID — cross-deal leakage is structurally impossible. AES-256 at rest, TLS 1.3 in transit, SOC 2 Type II architecture. Claude by Anthropic has zero data retention on API calls by default.
Not yet, by design. We augment your process — screen more deals faster, identify risks your CDD provider should investigate, stress-test assumptions before committing capital. Most clients run our simulation first, then commission targeted CDD on the specific risks we flag.
Every tool has limits. Ours are transparent: confidence levels per agent, per conclusion. Low-confidence findings auto-pause for human review. Our MedFlow simulation surfaced three distinct deal-killer cascades with probability-weighted outcomes — the kind of second-order risk mapping traditional CDD structurally cannot produce.
Every PE firm has a deal they wish they'd diligenced differently. We exist so the next one doesn't become that story.
Risk reversal: Your first simulation is complimentary for qualified firms. Share a deal — live or completed — and we'll run the full analysis. If it doesn't surface at least one risk your team missed, there's no invoice.